Turkish Medium Term Program: In TV series we trust!

Turkish government presented Medium Term Program (MTP) and Medim Term Fiscal Plan recently, which is in line with the annual calendar.

Apparently MTP was highly welcomed by the business chambers. Indeed, Güler Sabanci, “the boss” managing Turkey’s one of the biggest conglomarates Sabanci Holding, noted that “while many countries in the world can not even foresee 3-days ahead, Turkish government could give projections for the coming 3 years”. Hats off!

But, what good does it make to submit projections, if you fail big time in your foresights, almost every time? OK, I guess you need examples. There are plenty. And to show my goodwill, I will exclude the projections for 2008-2010, as the years of the global crisis. Here we go:

1-      In October 2005, government projected an annual GDP growth of 5% for 2006, which ended up being 7%.

2-      Being encouraged by higher than expected growth performance in 2006, government pulled the 2007 growth projection to 7% from 5%. Have you, for a second, thought that projections were based on modelling? No dear, random walk!

3-      Indeed, random walk has failed. Growth performance in 2007 underperformed the projection by 2.5 points.

It seems that, Turkish government misses the projections by at least 2 points, but no guarantee about the direction. Hats are still off!

2011 is a remarkable year, as Turkish Central Bank (CBT) started its Nobel-march headed by Governor Basci and the so called “new” monetary stance designed mainly by him. Turkey grew by 9% in 2010 and the credit went to the government and the CBT.

4-Actively involved in the growth business with monetary and fiscal policies and still enjoying the success of 2010, government pointed at an annual growth of 4.5% for 201. And? Turkey grew by 8.5% in 2011.

Apparently, Turkish economy is blowing in the wind and government’s agents have no direct control over the figures. Because an overperformance is an equally valid failure as underperformance, when it comes to projecting. May I remind you that “uncontrolled power is not power”.

But lets not boil the MTP to growth pojections. What more? Enhancing the effectiveness of the security, improving the judical system, “protecting” and promoting culture and strengthening social dialogue are among the targets.

While the targets are handsome, so are the steps in the action plan. But one of them is eye-catching.

*In print and visual media, programmes such as TV series, documentaries and cartoons that emphasize the integrity and importance of the family and present the important figures, places and events of our history will be expanded.

For those who are unfamiliar with the Turkish social life, here is a warning. Both public and private TV channells offer variaty of TV series. In total there are 60-70 TV series in Turkey at the moment. They are so widely followed that, social life of the many people are planned accordingly. When you suggest to meet a friend, don’t be surprised to hear him/her saying: sorry i can’t meet you on Tuesdays and Thursdays, I have “my series” those days.

These TV series are taken so seriously by the government that a particular one called “Behzat C”, who is an anti-hero policeman, was critized openly for his “wrong-way” of living. He was a heavy drinker and unmarried with a lot of explicit/implicit critiq to the government policies in his words.

Well, so we should not be fully surprised by government’s decision to go into “TV series business”. Perhaps finally we will see Behzat C, quitting alcohol, exercising every morning, saving some part of his salary and getting a pension plan, to support government’s medium term goal of raising the savings.

Then slowly, with the opium effect of the TV, we will fall asleep and dream that MTP projections will be fulfilled. Yes yes, indeed, “while many countries in the world can not even foresee 3-days ahead, Turkish government could give projections for the coming 3 years”.